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23
Jul 2023
What does the Selby and Ainsty by-election result mean for Harrogate?
The Selby and Ainsty by-election this week delivered a historic result for Labour and a blow to the ruling Conservative government.
Keir Mather became the youngest MP in parliament at just 25 after overturning the 20,000 majority held by the Tories.
It means Mr Mather becomes the first ever Labour MP to be elected in a constituency that includes part of the Harrogate district.
But, what does this mean for Harrogate and Knaresborough ahead of an upcoming General Election?
Tactical voting
Labour was the main opposition in Selby and Ainsty - however the same cannot be said for Harrogate.
Amid the fallout from the results last night, John Curtis, professor of politics at the University of Strathclyde, told the BBC that, as with other by-elections, voters opted for “whichever opposition party appeared best able to defeat the local Conservative candidate”.
Should this be replicated in Harrogate at a General Election, it would be the Liberal Democrats and their candidate Tom Gordon.
Currently, they need to make up a 9,675 majority held by Conservative MP, Andrew Jones.
Should they unseat the Tories, it would likely require some Labour voters switching to the Lib Dems in order to vote tactically.
https://twitter.com/tomgordonLD/status/1682342576630661125
As with the Somerset and Frome election on Thursday, which the Liberal Democrats won, Mr Gordon believes this can be replicated in Harrogate and Knaresborough.
He told Sky News:
Despite Mr Gordon’s confidence over the prospect of unseating the Conservatives, the political forecasters paint a different picture.
The chances of winning in Harrogate and Knaresborough, according to Electoral Calculus.
Electoral Calculus, which uses past voting figures, polling trends and party support to predict the average outcome of seat, has Mr Jones winning a fifth consecutive election with a 56% chance of winning.
By contrast, the Liberal Democrats have 24% chance of winning and Labour 19%.
Mr Jones told BBC News on Thursday that Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s five pledges had chimed with people in his constituency despite these being tough times.
Both Labour and the Liberal Democrats will have work to do to replicate Selby and Ainsty in Harrogate ahead of the next polling day.
Read more:
- Labour overturns huge Tory majority to win Selby and Ainsty by-election
- Harrogate heavyweights out in force at Selby by-election
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