Selby and Ainsty by-election candidates have their say – Part 3

This article is the third of a series of six.

Voters across parts of the district will be heading to the polls next Thursday (July 20), when Selby and Ainsty holds a by-election triggered by the dramatic resignation last month of MP Nigel Adams. 

Most of the Selby and Ainsty constituency lies beyond our district’s borders – it stretches almost as far as Goole and Doncaster – but its northern end does encompass Huby, Follifoot, Spofforth and some of the villages in the Vale of York, such as Tockwith, Green Hammerton and Long Marston. 

There’s a broad field to choose from – there are 13 candidates – but who are they, and what do they believe? 

In the lead-up to the by-election, we’re spotlighting two or three each day, giving constituents the opportunity to read about the people who wish to represent them at Westminster – in their own words. 

So far, we’ve featured independent Andrew Gray, Claire Holmes of the Conservative Party, Mike Jordan of the Yorkshire Party and Dave Kent of Reform UK.

Continuing to take their surnames in alphabetical order, today’s candidates are Keir Mather of the Labour Party, independent Nick Palmer, and Guy Phoenix of the Heritage Party. 

Tomorrow: Sir Archibald Stanton (Official Monster Raving Loony Party), and Matt Walker (Liberal Democrats).

Keir Mather, Labour Party

Keir Mather was born in Hull and grew up near Selby before going to Oxford University. Keir has most recently worked at the CBI (Confederation of British Industry). His candidacy was supported by the GMB and Unison. 

“I’m standing to be Selby and Ainsty’s MP because this brilliant place has been let down for too long. We are facing the biggest hit to living standards in a generation. Mortgages, food and fuel prices are all soaring. Our public services are broken. Meanwhile the Conservative Government is too distracted by its own infighting and chaos to deliver, and the MP for Selby and Ainsty abandoned the people he was elected to serve, all because he didn’t get a peerage. 

“I have been having thousands of conversations on the doorstep, hearing directly about what matters most to our local communities. These conversations shaped my plan for Selby and Ainsty, which starts with supporting residents through the cost-of-living crisis, with our Warm Homes Plan to bring down energy bills by £1,400 and financial support surgeries across the constituency to provide vital support immediately in the crisis. 

“Everyone deserves to feel safe in their home and in their communities, but in North Yorkshire theft is up 14% in the last year, and knife crime is now nearly twice as high as it was in 2010. Where the Conservatives have cut police on the streets, Labour will restore neighbourhood policing with 13,000 new neighbourhood police officers and PCSOs. 

“My plan will also see us restore frequent and reliable public transport, protection from flooding and sewage dumping, and ensure our NHS services are built for the future. It’s time for a fresh start in Selby and Ainsty. If you’ve felt taken for granted or let down, I urge you to put your faith in me on July 20.” 

Nick Palmer, Independent 

One of the few candidates to live in the constituency, Nick Palmer has an MBA from Vlerick Business School in Belgium and is managing director of Bizenko, a social enterprise that aims to bridge the gap between the worlds of education and employment. 

“How many voters feel politically ‘homeless’ in the United Kingdom? I doubt anybody knows the true scale of this problem. But we should. I pledge to find out. 

“Voters hate broken promises and tribal squabbling from the different political parties. It makes them feel angry and frustrated. When voters are angry and frustrated, it becomes a problem for society. I’m standing as a candidate to give frustrated voters a meaningful option on Thursday, July 20. 

“Despite being a Westminster election, the Selby and Ainsty by-election will have zero impact at Westminster. Frustrating, isn’t it?! 

“The day after this by-election, Rishi will still be the Conservative Prime Minister, with a healthy majority in Parliament. Sir Keir will still be the Labour leader of the Opposition. 

“Many voters tell me that they can’t stand one party, and can’t trust the other. They feel they have to vote for a ‘big’ party in order to deny their enemy ‘sneaking in’. But that won’t mean anything here. The Westminster situation is already determined. There will be no change. 

“Tactical voting to block either main party, even in desperation, is a missed opportunity. We can make our vote more meaningful!  

“Typically, challenger parties cannot ‘win’ their argument and implement their by-election plans unless they win a general election. Until then, we have the Conservatives. 

“Traditionally, only two parties can win a general election. Which fuels the toxic culture that depresses so many voters. Therefore, this by-election is a ‘free hit’ to send a protest vote. As long as the protest vote doesn’t need a general election victory to come true, then we can make our vote meaningful. 

“Let that message be ‘#DoBetter, Westminster! We want better politics, and until you improve your culture, we choose an independent MP!’

“For floating voters, the most meaningful vote here is for an independent candidate who is not trying to win a general election. A candidate with a skillset for identifying failed systems, processes and cultures. Someone who can highlight the change needed to restore trust in politics.  

“In this by-election, that means a vote for Nick Palmer.”

Guy Phoenix, Heritage Party 

Guy Phoenix is owner and managing director of Ripon-based IT support firm Fresh Mango Technologies, which has two other offices in Yorkshire and provides an out-of-hours service from a team based in the British Virgin Islands. The Heritage Party is a Eurosceptic, right-wing populist and socially conservative party founded in 2020. 

“I am a local businessman with offices in Ripon, Leeds and Skipton, employing 23 people. I have been canvassing door-to-door across the constituency and I’m hearing the same comments from people – we want change. 

“So, I ask them if they want real change, and when they say yes then my response is simple. The only way to get that change is to discard the old parties and vote for a new, socially conservative and principled party. That’s the Heritage Party.”

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Selby and Ainsty by-election candidates have their say – Part 2

This article is the second of a series of six.

Voters across parts of the district will be heading to the polls on Thursday (July 20), when Selby and Ainsty holds a by-election triggered by the dramatic resignation last month of MP Nigel Adams. 

Most of the Selby and Ainsty constituency lies beyond our district’s borders – it stretches almost as far as Goole and Doncaster – but its northern end does encompass Huby, Follifoot, Spofforth and some of the villages in the Vale of York, such as Tockwith, Green Hammerton and Long Marston. 

There’s a broad field to choose from – there are 13 candidates – but who are they, and what do they believe? 

In the lead-up to the by-election, we’re spotlighting two or three each day, giving constituents the opportunity to read about the people who wish to represent them at Westminster – in their own words. 

Yesterday, we featured independent Andrew Gray and Claire Holmes of the Conservative Party. Continuing to take their surnames in alphabetical order, today’s candidates are Mike Jordan of the Yorkshire Party and Dave Kent of Reform UK. 

Tomorrow: Keir Mather (Labour), Nick Palmer (independent), and Guy Phoenix (Heritage Party).

Mike Jordan, Yorkshire Party 

Mike Jordan has been a county councillor since 2009 and currently represents the Camblesforth & Carlton division on North Yorkshire Council. He was a member of the Conservative Party before he joined the Yorkshire Party, which campaigns for a Yorkshire Parliament, in 2018. He moved back to the Tories, but he then quit the party again, causing it to lose its majority on the council, and now sits as an independent. 

To add to the confusion, the Yorkshire Party is not mentioned next to Mr Jordan’s name on the official list of candidates – the space is blank, due to an administrative error. But he assures the Stray Ferret that his name will be on the ballot paper as the Yorkshire Party candidate. 

“In a nutshell, this is a unique opportunity for the residents of Selby and Ainsty. This by-election is for a year’s term in office. So why not lend me your vote, just for the year and send me down to London. I am the only candidate that will force them to sit up and think about Yorkshire.  

“Selby and Ainsty will be effectively representing Yorkshire in this election. It’s a numbers game down there, and so voting for any of the main parties will be like pouring a pint of water in the sea and expecting to see it rise. Not happening.” 

Dave Kent, Reform UK 

A populist hardline Eurosceptic party founded by Nigel Farage in 2018 as the Brexit Party.  

“I live just outside Selby, in the village of Hambleton. This is no pretence when I say ‘I love the area and its people’. 

“That said, people are facing issues that need strong leadership to bring people with hope and improve the town of Selby by using a Beverley town mentality to bring people into this lovely town.  

“There are many ways this can be done; one is to bring produce from local farmer shop with benefits for doing this and create a boutique shop style as well. With incentives for doing this.  

“Our rivers are being polluted by sewage entering the River Wharfe near Wetherby. This is something you would expect from a Third World country. Unfortunately, any fines are much lower than the money to improve. This is affecting our area, but also the whole country as similar issues elsewhere where Reform UK is needed. 

“Probably for the first time since the war, local issues are also national issues. The cost of living is soaring, inflation is running at eye-watering levels, and the people on the street are feeling the pinch. Reform UK would do several things to combat this.  

“It was brought to this country’s attention a couple weeks ago that supermarkets have been profiting by large amounts on fuel; we believe food is having a similar thing, and gas too.  

“They have used a chance to say ‘aw Covid, aw Ukraine’, yet our farmers are not getting any more for the food they produce, so somewhere in between, someone is making a killing.  

“Net zero, according to KPMG, will cost each household £1,000 this year; this is madness, since what they are doing will not change our climate one bit. Also mortgage rates, one of the only jobs for the Bank of England to do and they can’t do that right. 

“Much more to say, but I am limited.”

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Selby and Ainsty by-election candidates have their say – Part 1

This article is the first of a series of six.

Voters across parts of the Harrogate district will head to the polls next Thursday (July 20), when Selby and Ainsty holds a by-election triggered by last month’s resignation of Conservative MP Nigel Adams. 

Most of the Selby and Ainsty constituency lies beyond our district’s borders – it stretches almost as far as Goole and Doncaster – but its northern end encompasses Huby, Follifoot, Spofforth and some of the villages in the Vale of York, such as Tockwith, Green Hammerton and Long Marston. 

With 13 candidates, there’s a broad field to choose from — but who are they, and what do they believe? 

Over the coming week, we’ll be spotlighting two or three each day, giving constituents the opportunity to read about the people who wish to represent them at Westminster – in their own words. 

Taking their surnames in alphabetical order, we start today with Andrew Gray, an independent, and Claire Holmes, who is standing for the Conservatives. 

Tomorrow: Mike Jordan, Yorkshire Party, and Dave Kent, Reform UK. 

Andrew Gray, Independent 

A Harrogate-based solicitor who founded his firm, Truth Legal, in 2012 on the principle that everyone should have access to affordable legal advice. 

“Annoyed with MPs who put party before constituents? Narked, that MPs don’t listen? Frustrated, that all our institutions are broken, exploited by ne’er-do-wells?

“Empowered by you, I am your only solution.

“Intuitively, you know that we can’t go on like this. We are the greatest country on earth; North Yorkshire, the greatest county. Great, because we are usually first, unafraid to go it alone. Think about it: the Industrial Revolution; parliamentary democracy; the end of slavery; foundation of the NHS; creators of football, rugby, golf and tennis; alone in WW2; creators of the computer, and more besides.When we innovate, we succeed.

“You have a choice: more of the same old failed politics, or something better, fresh, transparent.I’m asking for your votes: ‘votes’ because I have no policies. The good people of this constituency create my policies, with AI (artificial intelligence) harnessing your collective wisdom. So far, you’ve voted over 5,000 times to create your policies. I’m running 50 anonymous online conversations in every sizeable village and town. Why? So, that I can understand what you want from me.

“As your MP, you will influence how I represent you in Parliament, every week. Win, and every MP in the land will need to listen to the people. This is what representatives are meant to do, starting here, in Selby and Ainsty.

“If you believe, like I do, that interest rate hikes are madness, empower me. I recommend we restructure the failed Bank of England, should we?

“I’m a dad, first and foremost, with two children in school. Husband, leader, lawyer, entrepreneur and Quaker. I’ve made my mistakes, lots of them. I’ve represented hundreds of people, businesses and trade unions, throughout Yorkshire, and hired dozens of staff.

“Me, or more of the same? You decide. Let’s put Selby and Ainsty on the international map.”

Claire Holmes, Conservative Party

Claire Holmes is a solicitor and barrister based in Hull, and represents South East Holderness on East Riding of Yorkshire Council. She was selected last month following the unexpected resignation of the previous candidate, Michael Naughton. 

“I was born and grew up in Castleford and have always lived in Yorkshire. My dad worked down the pit and my mum was a seamstress.  

“I have a strong work ethic. I worked full time and studied with Open University to qualify as a barrister and I will use that dedication and those skills to be a strong voice for this community to ensure everyone here has access to good opportunities to achieve their potential. 

“I will push for more investment here alongside the Community Diagnostic Centre at New Selby War Memorial Hospital – improving access to healthcare; the 251 extra police officers secured for North Yorkshire – I sat on the Police Crime Commissioner’s Panel and I know these will help to make local people safer; and the £500m of new investment in North Yorkshire to grow our local economy and create good jobs with decent pay. 

“It is important Selby and Ainsty’s MP is focused on here and not Westminster.  

“Anyone who wants to represent our community must want to protect what’s special about our towns, villages and rural communities – protecting our green spaces, backing our farmers and creating jobs for local people.  

“I am a councillor in rural East Riding. I held the portfolio for planning, infrastructure and housing and sat on the Transport for the North board, setting long-term planning for the development of the north’s transport system, so I understand and have already faced many of the challenges here.  

“I am asking the people of Selby and Ainsty to put their trust in me as their next MP because I want to use the knowledge, skills and experiences I have accrued in my life for the benefit of Yorkshire, my home which I love and am proud of.  

“I have performed many voluntary roles as a scout leader, parish councillor, school governor and a member of my local drainage board to demonstrate my belief in the importance of representation being strongly rooted in community and why I believe I should become the next MP for Selby & Ainsty.“

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By-election could give Harrogate district its first ever Labour MP

The Harrogate district could be set to get its first ever Labour MP when voters turn out for the Selby and Ainsty by-election next week, according to an opinion poll. 

The survey by JL Partners reveals Labour could win a landslide victory on July 20 in the traditionally Tory constituency, with 41% of the vote – up 16 points on the last election.

No Labour MP has ever represented any of the Harrogate district constituencies: Harrogate and Knaresborough, Skipton and Ripon, and Selby and Ainsty.

The poll has the Conservatives on 29% (down 31 percentage points on last general election), Reform UK on 8% (+8), the Lib Dems on 6% (-3), the Greens on 6% (+3), the Yorkshire Party on 4% (+1), and the others on 6% (+6). 

A Labour victory – which political analysts Electoral Calculus sees as a 66% probability – would be a remarkable upset in a constituency it has never before won.

Selby and Ainsty has been held by the Conservatives since its creation in 2010, with MP Nigel Adams increasing his share of the vote at successive elections from 49% in 2010 to 60% at 2019. 

Labour candidate Keir Mather, 25, would become the youngest current MP if he wins.

A Labour spokesperson told the Stray Ferret:  

“It will be a mammoth task to overturn a 20,000 Conservative majority, and the biggest Labour has achieved since the end of the Second World War.  

“Labour’s Keir Mather is speaking to hundreds of voters on the doorstep who want change, and for him to be their MP and a strong voice fighting on their behalf in Westminster.” 

A Conservative Party spokesperson told the Stray Ferret the party never comments on opinion polls.

Cabinet minister Nigel Adams was a Boris Johnson loyalist and stepped down last month after his name did not appear on Mr Johnson’s retirement honours list. The constituency has been unrepresented at Westminster since then. 

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The Harrogate district is mainly represented by the MP for Harrogate and Knaresborough, but large areas fall within other constituencies.

The vast Selby and Ainsty constituency includes Huby, Follifoot and Spofforth, as well as several villages in the Vale of York, including Great Ouseburn, Green Hammerton, Kirk Hammerton and Tockwith. Its main towns are Selby, Tadcaster and Sherburn-in-Elmet, and at its southern end it includes Drax power station and reaches nearly as far as Goole and Doncaster.

The Harrogate and Knaresborough constituency has only ever been held by the Tories and Liberal Democrats, and Skipton and Ripon has only ever been held by the Conservatives. The Selby and Ainsty constituency was formed from the Vale of York constituency – which was perennially Conservative – and the Selby constituency, which swung from Conservative to Labour. 

‘Two in three chance’ Conservatives will lose Selby & Ainsty

The upcoming by-election in Selby and Ainsty is the most likely of three in the UK to see a win for the Conservatives, according to bookmakers’ odds.

Parliamentary seats in Uxbridge and South Ruislip, and Somerton and Frome, will also be contested on Thursday, July 20.

Statistics from bookmakers’ odds, analysed by the Telegraph, reveal the Selby and Ainsty seat is the most likely of the three to remain in Tory hands.

However, it still has a 66% likelihood of being lost to another party or independent candidate.

By comparison, Boris Johnson’s former seat of Uxbridge and South Ruislip has a 92% likelihood of being lost, and Somerton and Frome – previously held by David Warburton until his resignation after having the whip removed by the party – is rated at 71%.

In Selby and Ainsty, the by-election was triggered by the resignation of Nigel Adams, a close ally of the former prime minister.

He had held the seat since 2010, when it was first formed, and won a majority of just over 20,000 at the last election in 2019.

This time, the Conservative candidate will be Claire Holmes. She will stand against 12 other candidates, including two who have stood in the constituency before: Arnold Warneken for the Green Party and Mike Jordan for the Yorkshire Party.

The full list of candidates is:

Any constituents who have not yet registered to vote have until midnight tonight to do so on the government’s website.

It will be the first time voter ID will be required for an election in North Yorkshire. Acceptable forms of ID include photocard driving licences, UK passports, and bus passes for older or disabled people.

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Shadow chancellor joins local by-election campaign trail

Shadow chancellor Rachel Reeves joined Labour candidate Keir Mather on the by-election campaign trail in Selby on Saturday.

Selby and Ainsty will go to the polls on July 20 following the resignation of Conservative MP Nigel Adams.

The constituency includes villages close to Harrogate, Knaresborough and Boroughbridge, including Spofforth, Follifoot, Ouseburn and Little Ribston.

The Conservatives hold a 20,137 majority but Ms Reeves’ visit indicates that Labour, which finished second last time with 25% of the vote, regards it as a winnable seat.

Ms Reeves joined Mr Mather to launch his five-point plan, which he said would deliver ‘a fresh start’ for the constituency.

Ms Reeves said:

“Across Britain, people are being hit hard by a Tory mortgage penalty, and here in Selby and Ainsty over 12,300 households will see their repayments go up by an average £2,700.

“Meanwhile, the Conservative MP abandoned his constituents in a cost of living crisis, leaving them without a voice and a Conservative government too distracted to deliver.”

Mr Mather’s five-point plan is to support residents through the cost of living crisis; tackle antisocial behaviour and rural crime; make the local NHS fit for the future; protect communities from flooding and sewage and restore frequent, reliable public transport.

He said:

“This brilliant constituency deserves a fresh start and a dedicated MP who will deliver on their promises to local people.”

Read more:

 

 

13 candidates to contest local parliamentary by-election

Thirteen candidates will contest the Selby and Ainsty parliamentary by-election next month.

Nominations for candidates closed on Friday and voters will go to the polls on Thursday, July 20.

All 13, except the Conservative candidate Claire Holmes, are male.

This will be the first local election to require photo ID following recent changes introduced to prevent fraud.

The candidates are:

Although Selby and Ainsty is centred on Selby and reaches almost as far south as Pontefract, its northern portion includes Spofforth and many of the villages in the Vale of York, such as Great Ouseburn, Green Hammerton and Tockwith.

Voting will take place from 7am to 10pm with the election count taking place in the evening after the close of polling.

The by-election has been called following the resignation of Conservative MP Nigel Adams, who had held the seat since 2010. The Tories will be defending a 20,137 majority.

Read more:

The electorate in the Selby and Ainsty constituency have until midnight on Tuesday, July 4, to register to vote and until 5pm on Wednesday, July 5, to apply for a postal vote.

If someone is unable to vote in person or by post, they have until 5pm on Wednesday, July 12, to apply for a proxy vote.

Voters will need to bring photographic identification to be able to vote.

Accepted forms of ID include a UK or Northern Ireland photocard driving licence, full or provisional, a UK passport or a passport issued by the EU, Norway, Iceland, Liechtenstein, the Isle of Man, or any of the Channel Islands, and some concessionary travel passes, such as an older person’s bus pass or blue badge.

Voters will be able to use expired ID if they are still recognisable from the photo.

Anyone without an accepted form of ID can apply for a free voter authority certificate by 5pm on Wednesday, July 12.  You can do so here.

You can register to vote here.

More information on the by-election is available here.

Harrogate man to stand as independent in Selby and Ainsty by-election

Harrogate solicitor Andrew Gray announced today he will stand as an independent candidate in the forthcoming Selby and Ainsty by-election.

Today is the deadline for candidates to put their names forward for the by-election, which will take place on July 20 following the resignation of Conservative Nigel Adams.

Mr Gray is a solicitor who founded the Harrogate law firm Truth Legal in 2012 before a management buyout in 2022.

He said he was standing due to his “dissatisfaction with the current state of British politics” and pledged to  engage with local people using artificial intelligence to find out what they wanted.

Mr Gray said he will use Polis AI to do this, adding AI has been used abroad in politics but this will be the first time it has been adopted in a UK election.

Polis AI allows users to anonymously submit short text statements or comments, which are then sent out randomly to other participants who can click to agree, disagree or pass.

Mr Gray said:

“I want to find these consensus points and use them as my policies.

“My only policy is to take my policies from the people.

“That’s what a representative ought to do.”

Mr Gray has previously been involved as a Conservative, Labour and Liberal Democrat activist, as well running the non-profit Crowd Wisdom Project which has used Polis AI since 2021.

The system will be used in every town and village within the constituency to gauge a general consensus, as well as cross-constituency conversations to discuss national issues.

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Mr Gray said:

“If elected, I will vote in Parliament in accordance with the consensus of the constituency.

“On election, the conversations will continue, and I will vote in Parliament as per the changing desires of my electorate, which means that I can respond to change quickly.

“If mandated, I will vote for the government, or against, or abstain.

“Therefore, by electing me, my constituents are getting more democracy, more power in their hands. Selby and Ainsty will be the country’s bellwether constituency.”

He added:

“Although there is some history in my family in politics, I want to be seen as not so much a political candidate, but a candidate for positive change.

“There is so much that we agree upon: let’s start there. I’m optimistic. Our many problems are fixable.

“Things simply can’t stay as they are. Many of us are rolling our eyes at what is going on in Westminster. Traditional party politics need consigning to the dustbin of history.”

 

Tories on course to retain Harrogate and Knaresborough, says political forecaster

The Conservatives would retain Harrogate and Knaresborough while Labour could gain Selby and Ainsty if a general election were held tomorrow.

According to Electoral Calculus, a political forecasting company, Andrew Jones MP would win a fifth successive election in Harrogate.

Meanwhile, Labour would unseat the Tories in Selby and Ainsty, which includes areas of rural Harrogate, and Julian Smith, Skipton and Ripon MP, would retain his seat for the Conservatives but in a far closer contest.

Electoral Calculus uses past voting figures, polling trends and party support to predict the average outcome of seats in the House of Commons.

The chances of winning seats in Parliament has become particularly pertinent as a by-election looms in Selby and Ainsty next month and a general election is lined up for next year.

The Conservative campaign in Selby and Ainsty was thrown into disarray on Friday when its candidate, Michael Naughton, withdrew just days after being selected.

But with by-election fever mounting, we looked at the state of play locally according to Electoral Calculus.

Harrogate and Knaresborough

According to the political forecaster, Andrew Jones has a 67% chance of winning in Harrogate and Knaresborough.

Mr Jones, who has already confirmed he will stand at the next election, currently has a majority of 9,675.

The website says the Liberal Democrats have a 20% chance of winning while Labour, which has yet to name a candidate, is rated 13%.

The figures come as Tom Gordon, Liberal Democrat candidate for the seat, this week called for an election in light of three Conservative MPs resigning last weekend.

The predictions for Harrogate and Knaresborough, according to Electoral Calculus.

The predictions for Harrogate and Knaresborough, according to Electoral Calculus.

However, under an election scenario, the Lib Dems would pick up 28% of the vote – which is down on their 2019 figure of 35.6%.

Meanwhile, Mr Jones’ share would drop from 52.6% to 37%.

However, the increase in share of Labour from 9.6% to 24% suggests a split in the vote which paves the way for the Tories to retain the constituency.

Selby and Ainsty

The chances of the Conservatives holding onto Selby and Ainsty in the upcoming by-election look tight, according to Electoral Calculus.

Voters will head to the polls on July 20 after the resignation of Nigel Adams MP last weekend.

Labour announced 26-year-old Keir Mather will fight the by-election for the party.

Michael Naughton was picked to succeed Mr Adams for the Conservatives but withdrew on Friday and a replacement has yet to be named.

The Green Party has chosen Arnold Warneken, who represents Ouseburn on North Yorkshire Council, as its prospective parliamentary candidate.

The predictions for Selby and Ainsty, according to Electoral Calculus.

Electoral Calculus has the contest as a two-horse race, with Labour a 55% chance of winning and the Conservatives 45%.

Such a result would be dramatic given that Mr Adams, who was a former Foreign Office minister, had a majority of 20,137.

Under such a scenario, Labour would increase its vote share from 24.6% at the last election to 39.8%.

Meanwhile, the Tories would fall from 60.3% to 37.9%.

Skipton and Ripon

A similarly tight contest can be found in Skipton and Ripon.

Julian Smith, the former Northern Ireland secretary, currently holds the seat for the Conservatives with a majority of 23,694.

He’s predicted to have a 55% chance of retaining the seat for the party.

The predictions for Skipton and Ripon, according to Electoral Calculus.

The predictions for Skipton and Ripon, according to Electoral Calculus.

Meanwhile, Labour has a 44% chance.

Despite a predicted drop in vote share from 59.5% to 37.5%, Mr Smith would be safe.

The figures, however, also forecast a hike in Labour’s share from 19.1% at the last election to 35.5%.

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Labour names candidate for local by-election

Labour has selected 26-year-old Keir Mather to fight the Selby and Ainsty by-election, triggered by the resignation of Conservative MP Nigel Adams.

Oxford history and politics graduate Mr Mather is a former parliamentary researcher who works as a senior public affairs advisor at the Confederation of British Industry.

Mr Mather, who would become one of the youngest MPs, was born in Hull and grew up near Selby.

His candidacy was supported by the unions GMB and Unison.

Many villages close to Harrogate, Knaresborough and Boroughbridge, including Spofforth, Follifoot, Kirkby Overblow, Goldsborough, Little Ouseburn, Nun Monkton, Green Hammerton and Kirk Hammerton, will go to the polls on July 20.

The Conservatives, who will defend a 20,137 in the by-election on July 20, have named Michael Naughton as their candidate while the Greens have selected Arnold Warneken.

It is expected to be a close contest between the Tories and Labour, with political forecasting website Electoral Calculus predicting a 55% chance of Labour victory and a 45% chance of Conservative victory.

A by-election in Boris Johnson’s Uxbridge and South Ruislip constituency will also take place on the same date.

Mr Mather said:

“It is an honour to have been selected to fight to represent this brilliant constituency. Whilst the Conservatives are too distracted by their own chaos to deliver, the people of Selby and Ainsty have been left without a voice.

“We are facing the worst fall in living standards in a generation. Mortgages are up, our public services are broken, and the economy is stagnating.”

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